From: Sarmad Khalique
As we predicted in Issue 127 of The Mobile World Briefing, the number of mobile connections in Pakistan surpassed the 90m mark during the third quarter with an end-September total of 90.20m. However, quarterly growth stood at just 2.4%, the lowest rate recorded this century, and the monthly gains in August (238k) and September (640k) were the two lowest seen since monthly reporting began in 2005. Growth has been slowing in Pakistan for some time, partly as a result of the penetration rate, which reached 52.0% at the end of September; this is the highest rate in the sub-continent by some margin, with India and Bangladesh both below 30%.
The specific reason for the poor August and September figures seems to be the blocking of unregistered SIMs by the Pakistani regulator, however.
Market leader Mobilink has been the hardest hit by the new legislation, suffering a net loss of 478k customers in August and 219k in September, with a net quarterly decline in 673k. In fact, Mobilink was the only operator to record a net decline in September and the only one to see a quarterly drop, apart from legacy analogue operator Pakcom. As a result, its market share has fallen by 1.6pp in the quarter and 6.0pp in the year to finish September on 34.8%. It remains more than 12.5m customers ahead of nearest rival U- Fone, however, with an end-quarter total of 31.36m.
U-Fone finished with 18.80m, only 0.33m more than third-placed Telenor. Telenor lost 13k customers in August and added just 156k in September, leaving it with a quarterly uplift of 347k – its worst since its first quarter of operation. By contrast, U-Fone only saw a minor slump, with September's gain of 201k actually higher than the year-earlier figure of 85k. Fourth-placed Warid also seems to have weathered the storm reasonably well with the market's second-best monthly gain of 213k in September and a quarterly boost of 668k. It finished the quarter with 16.16m customers.
The one operator which emerged smelling of roses was China Mobile subsidiary Zong. It added 289k in September, its third successive month of market-leading growth, to finish on 5.09m – up an incredible 313.1% year on year and 28.9% quarterly.
Posted to the site on 28th October 2008
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